Sports Superstar Relocation
A Study Of How The Departure Of A Superstar Athelete Can Effect The Team They Leave
December 11, 2019
Sports fans are often enraged at team ownership after a star player is traded. However, when players decide to leave an organization, it tends to cut a little bit deeper into fans' hearts and all but guarantee an outflow of jeers upon the player's eventual homecoming.
The fans have some merit behind this rage. For evidence, we can analyze LeBron James' departure from Cleveland, which remains one of the most famous and dramatic exits in sports history. The hometown hero was born and raised in Akron, Ohio, and had the good fortune of being drafted to his local Cavaliers. Aside from the emotional connection Clevelanders had with LeBron, he had an enormous influence on the city's economy and image. In 2014, Time magazine reported the impact of his departure to be valued at nearly $500 million.
The team at HireAHelper wanted to take a closer look at which superstar relocations, following both trades and free agent signings, had the largest impact on teams and players. In this study, a superstar is defined as NBA or MLB players who made back-to-back All-Star teams on two separate teams or NFL players who made back-to-back Pro Bowl teams on two separate teams. The period used is the last 10 seasons for each league. Continue reading to see what we found.
Pump Faking Fans
The first chart displays the change in win totals for NBA teams after their stars departed. As expected, there are huge dips in win totals across the board. However, the 2017 Indiana Pacers are the lone outlier: The team actually improved with Paul George's absence. The Pacers traded George for players Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. This trade translated to immediate improvement, largely due to Oladipo's herculean effort throughout the 2017 season; the Indiana University product posted over 23 points per game and won the season's Most Improved Player award.
Unfortunately, most teams don't have such a seamless transition: LeBron's second departure from Cleveland in 2018 sent the Cavs spiraling downhill with 31 less wins the following season. Chris Paul's New Orleans Hornets team suffered a drastic decrease in wins as well, which may suggest that losing a primary ball-handling superstar is even more crippling than a center or power forward.
In terms of attendance drop-off, Chris Paul and LeBron's former teams suffered losses of over 1,000 attendees per game. However, they were both outdone by Dwight Howard's devastating departure from Orlando, which saw the largest loss in attendance at a decrease of 1,300 people per game.
Lastly, we took a look at players' individual performances following relocation. Amar'e Stoudemire averaged over two additional points per game more after he relocated, as well as dishing out an additional 1.6 assists per game. Dwight Howard and DeMarcus Cousins were next on the list, making all three of the most improved relocated players either power forwards or centers.
Having a Game Plan
When speculating about team success following the loss of a superstar, NFL teams seem to have an easier time bouncing back than NBA squads. The 2010 Texans and 2016 Chargers both improved by four wins the following season, and five other teams managed to improve their records. This is likely related to the fact that there are 11 NFL players on the field for each team at any given time, whereas there are only five NBA players on the court. Additionally, NFL players are typically only expected to play either offense or defense. In contrast, NBA players are responsible for both directions of the game. With all of this in mind, it's natural that the loss of an NBA star would be felt more than their NFL counterparts.
We see a similar phenomenon across attendance statistics. The Dolphins saw massive decreases in attendance following two separate wide receiver departures years apart: Brandon Marshall in 2011 and Jarvis Landry in 2017. Promisingly, though, more teams experienced increases in attendance following the departure of a superstar, which once again shows it may be easier to recover after losing a star in the NFL than other leagues.
In terms of individual performance, Aqib Talib and Jason Babin were the most improved defensive players following relocation. On the other side of the ball, Brandon Marshall and Kyle Juszczyk were standout performers.
Striking Out Looking
While he doesn't qualify for this dataset due to his absence from this year's All-Star Game, Bryce Harper's exit from Washington proved that the loss of a star far from dooms an MLB franchise's chances of success. The Nationals went on to win the 2019 World Series a year after they lost their All-Star outfielder.
Regardless, star power is extremely influential in the MLB: Eight teams saw double-digit drop-offs in win totals, whereas only a single team saw a double-digit increase with the absence of their star. The Rangers, in particular, saw a staggering drop following the loss of Nelson Cruz, from 2013's 91-72 record to 2014's 67-95 disaster.
Individually, Nelson Cruz saw the greatest success among newly relocated superstars in our sample. He saw his season home run total rise from a respectable 27 with Texas in 2013 to a monstrous 40 with his new Orioles team next season, providing an additional 2.5 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). On the mound, Chris Sale upped his strikeout total by 75 while managing to lower his ERA from 3.34 to 2.90 in his first season with the Red Sox, increasing his WAR from an already-impressive 5.0 to 6.0, which was the highest of any AL pitcher.
Cross-Sport Comparisons
After sifting through a decade of data for each of these three sports, we found that the loss of a superstar is most crippling in the NBA and easiest to bounce back from in the NFL. The average NBA team lost 13 additional games the following season after their superstar left, compared to 1.5 for NFL teams and 3 for MLB teams.
This could be tied to player age: The average age for an NBA superstar to take their talents elsewhere was 27. In comparison, the average MLB and NFL superstar moved at 29. However, it's more likely due to the more individual nature of basketball, which greatly differs from the much larger teams seen in the MLB and NFL. As a result, the loss of an NBA star often strips a team of its playing style and identity, whereas MLB and NFL teams see such departures as a slightly more minor hole to patch up.
While the team at HireAHelper.com isn't able to bring back your hometown's star athlete, we are extremely experienced in helping customers move.
Methodology
In this study, a superstar was defined as NBA or MLB players who made back-to-back All-Star teams on two separate teams or NFL players who made back-to-back Pro Bowl teams on two separate teams. We examined NBA players from the 2009-2010 NBA season through the 2018-2019 season, NFL players from the 2010 season through 2019 season, and MLB players from the 2010 season through the 2019 season. Through this methodology, we found 13 NBA superstars, 24 NFL superstars, and 20 MLB superstars.
To rank who improved the most in each sport after switching teams, we created a meta score that looked at three fundamental stats for each sport and position. We calculated the difference of these stats for each player before and after they switched teams, compared the difference to the other players who switched teams, and created an average for overall improvement.
The stats we examined for each league/position are as follows:
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NBA:
- Points per game
- Assists per game
- Rebounds per game
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NFL
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Defense:
- Fumbles forced in a season
- Solo tackles in a season
- Quarterback hits in a season
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Rushers:
- First downs in a season
- Rushing yards in a season
- Touchdowns in a season
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Receivers:
- First downs in a season
- Receiving yards in a season
- Touchdowns in a season
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Defense:
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MLB
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Batting:
- Hits in a season
- Runs in a season
- Home runs in a season
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Pitching:
- Hits allowed in a season
- Home runs allowed in a season
- Strikeouts in a season
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Batting:
Statistics were sourced from sports-reference.com.
Limitations
There is no objective way to determine who is and isn't a superstar in sports. It is a subjective classification.
The San Diego Chargers, St. Louis Rams, and Atlanta Braves were excluded from our attendance analysis due to them moving stadiums while simultaneously losing their superstars.
NFL quarterbacks and kickers were left off our visualizations due to there only being one player from each position switching teams since 2010.
Fair Use Statement
There's been a lot of heartbreak among fans when it comes to their favorite sports players leaving. Perhaps your readers would be interested in seeing how well they performed in the aftermath relative to other teams losing their superstars? Feel free to pass this along to them, so long as it's for noncommercial purposes and you link back to this page.